tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Houston via Orlando: arrives on time 20%

  1. 18:40 MSY → 21:30 MCO
    WN 4311 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:20 MCO → 23:45 HOU
    WN 2645 · Southwest · 2h 28m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip5h 08mMSY 18:40 to HOU 23:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.