tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Philadelphia via St Louis: arrives on time 37%

  1. 18:05 MCI → 19:10 STL
    WN 4341 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 28m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:38 STL → 23:50 PHL
    WN 3966 · Southwest · 2h 12m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 43 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 28m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 45mMCI 18:05 to PHL 23:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.