tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Dallas via Nashville: arrives on time 10%

  1. 18:15 MSY → 19:45 BNA
    WN 4344 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 BNA → 22:32 DAL
    WN 3230 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection30%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 70% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (30%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (32%).
Total trip4h 15mMSY 18:15 to DAL 22:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.