tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 10:40 SJC → 16:45 MDW
    WN 4357 · Southwest · 4h 05m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 MDW → 20:15 HOU
    WN 2785 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 56% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip7h 35mSJC 10:40 to HOU 20:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.