tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Chicago via Phoenix: arrives on time 26%

  1. 21:45 STL → 22:55 PHX
    WN 4360 · Southwest · 3h 10m · 31% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:55 PHX → 05:10 MDW +1 day
    WN 3298 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection31%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 69% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (31%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip7h 25mSTL 21:45 to MDW 05:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.