tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Orlando via Birmingham: arrives on time 21%

  1. 14:45 HOU → 16:30 BHM
    WN 437 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Birmingham (BHM) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:20 BHM → 20:05 MCO
    WN 3656 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip4h 20mHOU 14:45 to MCO 20:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.