tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Dallas via Nashville: arrives on time 6%

  1. 18:40 BHM → 19:40 BNA
    WN 4389 · Southwest · 1h 00m · 19% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 BNA → 22:32 DAL
    WN 3230 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection19%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 81% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (19%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (32%).
Total trip3h 50mBHM 18:40 to DAL 22:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.