tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Baltimore via Nashville: arrives on time 5%

  1. 18:40 BHM → 19:40 BNA
    WN 4389 · Southwest · 1h 00m · 19% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 BNA → 23:15 BWI
    WN 468 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 30% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection15%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 85% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time5%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (15%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (30%).
Total trip3h 35mBHM 18:40 to BWI 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.