tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Chicago via Nashville: arrives on time 31%

  1. 18:40 BHM → 19:40 BNA
    WN 4389 · Southwest · 1h 00m · 19% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 BNA → 19:10 MDW
    WN 578 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip4h 30mBHM 18:40 to MDW 19:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.