tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Sacramento via Ontario: arrives on time 56%

  1. 07:45 HOU → 08:55 ONT
    WN 4391 · Southwest · 3h 10m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Ontario (ONT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:45 ONT → 11:10 SMF
    WN 3166 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 91% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip5h 25mHOU 07:45 to SMF 11:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.