tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Chicago via San Francisco: arrives on time 30%

  1. 20:05 LAS → 21:35 SFO
    WN 4397 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 17% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 05m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:40 SFO → 05:55 MDW +1 day
    WN 3649 · Southwest · 4h 15m · 41% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 80 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 05m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip7h 50mLAS 20:05 to MDW 05:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.