tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Orlando via Dallas: arrives on time 24%

  1. 16:32 LGA → 19:38 DAL
    WN 4401 · Southwest · 4h 05m · 52% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 DAL → 00:15 MCO +1 day
    WN 4405 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 52% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip7h 38mLGA 16:32 to MCO 00:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.