tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Chicago via Raleigh/Durham: arrives on time 16%

  1. 14:55 HOU → 18:35 RDU
    WN 4411 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Raleigh/Durham (RDU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:28 RDU → 20:28 MDW
    WN 3766 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 57% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection29%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 71% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (29%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 33mHOU 14:55 to MDW 20:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.