tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Dallas via New Orleans: arrives on time 26%

  1. 18:50 AUS → 20:15 MSY
    WN 4424 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in New Orleans (MSY) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MSY → 22:55 DAL
    WN 4502 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 45% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip4h 05mAUS 18:50 to DAL 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.