tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sarasota/Bradenton → Chicago via Nashville: arrives on time 16%

  1. 18:30 SRQ → 19:25 BNA
    WN 4425 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 BNA → 21:55 MDW
    WN 4286 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 29% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip4h 25mSRQ 18:30 to MDW 21:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.