tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sarasota/Bradenton → Washington via Nashville: arrives on time 27%

  1. 18:30 SRQ → 19:25 BNA
    WN 4425 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 BNA → 23:15 DCA
    WN 497 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 43% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip4h 50mSRQ 18:30 to DCA 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.