tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Sarasota/Bradenton via Atlanta: arrives on time 56%

  1. 18:35 BNA → 20:48 ATL
    WN 446 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 35% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 19m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 23:07 ATL → 00:49 SRQ +1 day
    DL 2997 · Delta · 1h 38m · 78% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 49 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 19m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 10mBNA 18:35 to SRQ 00:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.