tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Austin via New Orleans: arrives on time 22%

  1. 20:15 BNA → 21:50 MSY
    WN 4475 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New Orleans (MSY) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 MSY → 00:10 AUS +1 day
    WN 4902 · Southwest · 1h 28m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip3h 53mBNA 20:15 to AUS 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.