tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 15:35 DCA → 16:45 MDW
    WN 4479 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 62% on time, 15.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 MDW → 20:15 HOU
    WN 2785 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 56% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (15.8% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 40mDCA 15:35 to HOU 20:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.