tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → Phoenix via San Diego: arrives on time 19%

  1. 17:15 RNO → 18:55 SAN
    WN 4485 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 SAN → 21:15 PHX
    WN 3526 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 55% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip4h 00mRNO 17:15 to PHX 21:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.