tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Sacramento via Los Angeles: arrives on time 57%

  1. 09:20 MCO → 11:25 LAX
    WN 4495 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:15 LAX → 13:35 SMF
    WN 265 · Southwest · 1h 20m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip7h 15mMCO 09:20 to SMF 13:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.