tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → St Louis via Cleveland: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:25 MDW → 19:35 CLE
    WN 4506 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 72% on time, 4.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Cleveland (CLE) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 CLE → 21:00 STL
    WN 747 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (4.9% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip3h 35mMDW 17:25 to STL 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.