tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 52%

  1. 13:40 RDU → 14:40 MDW
    WN 4516 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 MDW → 20:15 HOU
    WN 2785 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 56% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 135 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 00m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip7h 35mRDU 13:40 to HOU 20:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.