tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Ontario via Las Vegas: arrives on time 10%

  1. 16:45 OAK → 18:20 LAS
    WN 4539 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 38% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:10 LAS → 20:10 ONT
    WN 208 · Southwest · 1h 00m · 56% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection19%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 81% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (19%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip3h 25mOAK 16:45 to ONT 20:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.