tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Austin via Tampa: arrives on time 10%

  1. 14:25 MDW → 18:05 TPA
    WN 4546 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 61% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 TPA → 20:25 AUS
    WN 4001 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 28% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection37%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 63% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (37%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip6h 00mMDW 14:25 to AUS 20:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.