tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Islip via Baltimore: arrives on time 37%

  1. 20:45 MCO → 20:55 BWI
    WN 455 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 55% on time, 7.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:25 BWI → 23:35 ISP
    WN 4321 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 57% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 2h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (7.3% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip2h 55mMCO 20:45 to ISP 23:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.