tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Chicago via Orlando: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:15 ATL → 20:00 MCO
    WN 4558 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 MCO → 22:00 MDW
    WN 4762 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 50% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 35mATL 18:15 to MDW 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.