tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Tampa via Atlanta: arrives on time 13%

  1. 14:40 MDW → 17:35 ATL
    WN 4592 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 41% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 ATL → 20:05 TPA
    WN 245 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection31%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 69% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (31%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip4h 25mMDW 14:40 to TPA 20:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.