tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Detroit via Nashville: arrives on time 5%

  1. 15:20 PHX → 20:40 BNA
    WN 4600 · Southwest · 3h 20m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 BNA → 00:08 DTW +1 day
    WN 2210 · Southwest · 1h 38m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection12%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 88% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time5%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (12%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip5h 48mPHX 15:20 to DTW 00:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.