tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → St Louis via Nashville: arrives on time 16%

  1. 15:20 PHX → 20:40 BNA
    WN 4600 · Southwest · 3h 20m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:38 BNA → 22:55 STL
    WN 682 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 57% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection29%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 71% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (29%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 33mPHX 15:20 to STL 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.