tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → New Orleans via Atlanta: arrives on time 19%

  1. 11:00 MDW → 13:50 ATL
    WN 4606 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 38% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:50 ATL → 15:20 MSY
    WN 234 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 20mMDW 11:00 to MSY 15:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.