tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Richmond via Baltimore: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:20 MDW → 20:15 BWI
    WN 4616 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 25m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 BWI → 23:38 RIC
    WN 2353 · Southwest · 58m · 37% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 100 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 25m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip5h 18mMDW 17:20 to RIC 23:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.