tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Raleigh/Durham via Baltimore: arrives on time 22%

  1. 17:20 MDW → 20:15 BWI
    WN 4616 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:05 BWI → 22:20 RDU
    WN 793 · Southwest · 1h 18m · 62% on time, 11.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (11.9% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 03mMDW 17:20 to RDU 22:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.