tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Minneapolis via Baltimore: arrives on time 11%

  1. 17:20 MDW → 20:15 BWI
    WN 4616 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 BWI → 23:05 MSP
    WN 863 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 24% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (24%).
Total trip5h 45mMDW 17:20 to MSP 23:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.