tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Raleigh/Durham via Baltimore: arrives on time 40%

  1. 18:05 BNA → 21:00 BWI
    WN 467 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 38% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:25 BWI → 23:42 RDU
    WN 161 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 75% on time, 8.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (8.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 35mBNA 18:05 to RDU 23:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.