tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Portland via Baltimore: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:05 BNA → 21:00 BWI
    WN 467 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 38% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 35m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 BWI → 00:10 PWM +1 day
    WN 4382 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 56% on time, 5.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 35m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (5.2% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 05mBNA 18:05 to PWM 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.