tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Washington via Orlando: arrives on time 26%

  1. 15:25 AUS → 19:15 MCO
    WN 4720 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 62% on time, 5.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:20 MCO → 22:45 DCA
    WN 2627 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 40% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (5.9% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip6h 25mAUS 15:25 to DCA 22:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.