tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Tampa via Chicago: arrives on time 23%

  1. 17:30 LGA → 19:20 MDW
    WN 4746 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 54% on time, 11.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 MDW → 23:45 TPA
    WN 2910 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (11.9% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip6h 15mLGA 17:30 to TPA 23:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.