tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Santa Barbara via Denver: arrives on time 7%

  1. 17:10 PHX → 20:00 DEN
    WN 4758 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 24% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:55 DEN → 22:30 SBA
    WN 3842 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 39% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection20%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 80% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time7%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (20%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip5h 20mPHX 17:10 to SBA 22:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.