tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Sacramento via Portland: arrives on time 34%

  1. 16:40 MDW → 19:00 PDX
    WN 4765 · Southwest · 4h 20m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 PDX → 21:48 SMF
    WN 3213 · Southwest · 1h 32m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip7h 07mMDW 16:40 to SMF 21:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.