tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Nashville via San Diego: arrives on time 6%

  1. 15:15 SMF → 16:45 SAN
    WN 4774 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:32 SAN → 23:30 BNA
    WN 3479 · Southwest · 3h 58m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection24%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 76% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (24%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip6h 15mSMF 15:15 to BNA 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.