tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Richmond via Baltimore: arrives on time 20%

  1. 19:50 CLT → 21:25 BWI
    WN 478 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 44% on time, 7.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 BWI → 23:38 RIC
    WN 2353 · Southwest · 58m · 37% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 3h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (7.1% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip3h 48mCLT 19:50 to RIC 23:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.