tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Orlando via Nashville: arrives on time 8%

  1. 14:10 HOU → 16:05 BNA
    WN 478 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 36% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:55 BNA → 20:00 MCO
    WN 787 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 40% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection21%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 79% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time8%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (21%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip4h 50mHOU 14:10 to MCO 20:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.