tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Tampa via Nashville: arrives on time 19%

  1. 16:00 MIA → 17:25 BNA
    WN 4799 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 31% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 BNA → 21:35 TPA
    WN 686 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (33%).
Total trip5h 35mMIA 16:00 to TPA 21:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.