tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas → Sacramento via Las Vegas: arrives on time 50%

  1. 10:40 DAL → 11:25 LAS
    WN 486 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 62% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:35 LAS → 14:10 SMF
    WN 4533 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Dallas). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 30mDAL 10:40 to SMF 14:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.