tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Los Angeles via St Louis: arrives on time 10%

  1. 18:30 LGA → 20:30 STL
    WN 4895 · Southwest · 3h 00m · 49% on time, 17.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 STL → 23:10 LAX
    WN 4556 · Southwest · 3h 50m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection28%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 72% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (17.5% are) × connection made (28%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip7h 40mLGA 18:30 to LAX 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.