tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Long Beach → Las Vegas via Sacramento: arrives on time 24%

  1. 16:38 LGB → 18:02 SMF
    WN 4897 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 SMF → 20:20 LAS
    WN 3786 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 75% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection34%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 66% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (34%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip3h 42mLGB 16:38 to LAS 20:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.