tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Chicago via St Louis: arrives on time 24%

  1. 12:55 BOS → 14:45 STL
    WN 4917 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 61% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:35 STL → 16:40 MDW
    WN 556 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 61% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Boston). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip4h 45mBOS 12:55 to MDW 16:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.