tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Phoenix via Kansas City: arrives on time 15%

  1. 15:20 MIA → 17:35 MCI
    WN 4925 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 46% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Kansas City (MCI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 MCI → 19:15 PHX
    WN 2580 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 41% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip6h 55mMIA 15:20 to PHX 19:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.