tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Washington via Kansas City: arrives on time 16%

  1. 15:20 MIA → 17:35 MCI
    WN 4925 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 46% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Kansas City (MCI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 MCI → 21:55 DCA
    WN 458 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip6h 35mMIA 15:20 to DCA 21:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.